El nino 2023 - Election day 2023
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Updated: May 25,2023
Graphics: El Niño could return in 2023; what that means for the world's weather.
An El Niño is likely in 2023, possibly a strong one. Here's what causes the global weather phenomenon and what it could mean in the United States.
Published 10:00 am UTC May. 20, 2023 Updated 3:50 pm UTC May. 22, 2023.
An El Niño appears to be forming along the equator off the west coast of South America in the Pacific Ocean. That could have a big effect on the weather in the United States and around the world.
For three years now, La Niña was large and in charge, but the La Niña ended, and now warmer water temperatures signal an El Niño probably is forming.
The Climate Prediction Center sees favorable chances of an El Niño and the possibility of a strong El Niño. El Niños often lead to some of the hottest years on record, including the record-high global average temperature set in 2016. That leads to fears the globe could see a new record high within the next couple of years.
El Niño's effects can cost billions and influence storms around the world, including hurricanes. Here's what causes El Niños and La Niñas and what they mean for our weather.
In normal conditions, trade winds blow east to west and push warm surface waters westward, piling up warm water in the western Pacific Ocean. During La Niña, the winds can intensify, adding even more warm water, increasing the typical upwelling of cooler water off the coast of South America.
During El Nino, surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific become much warmer than normal, when weakening trade winds slow or in some cases, change directions, reducing the upwelling and allow surface waters to grow warmer.
Because the Pacific is so large, shifts in ocean heat, wind and humidity disrupt weather around the world. El Niño’s warmer waters influence atmospheric pressure and fuel an intensification and southward shift of the jet stream over North America in the winter, enhancing chances for flooding in the southern U.S. and warmer, drier conditions in the northern U.S.
During La Nina more intense storms and rainfall in the western Pacific push a weaker jet stream northward. This can lead to drought in the southern U.S. and cooler temperatures, heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest.
What is El Niño?
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a natural climate pattern known as the El Niño ‒ Southern Oscillation. El Niño is the warm phase and La Niña is the cool phase. A third phase – neutral – produces conditions near the long-term average. Each can influence winds, surface pressures and rainfall around the world.
Is El Niño coming back?
In a mid-May update, the Climate Prediction Center said El Niño is likely by summer and puts the chances for a strong El Niño at 55%. Climate scientists say a strong El Niño would almost certainly send temperatures soaring this year and into 2024, increasing chances for a new record high global average. Temperatures in 2020 matched the record high set during the last El Niño in 2016, even during a La Niña. This year, ocean temperatures are already warmer than normal.
The end of La Niña.
As La Niña ended, waters off South America began to warm. When the warmer than normal water reaches the Central Pacific, that's a sign El Niño might be on the way. A responding reaction in the atmosphere is needed before an El Niño is declared.
What are the El Niño effects in the US?
Wetter than average conditions along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Increased chances of above normal tornado activity in central and south Florida. Wetter than normal conditions in parts of California. Drier than normal conditions in the Ohio Valley, and potentially reduced precipitation in Washington state and Oregon during a period when the states typically receive much of their annual precipitation.
How does El Niño influence hurricanes?
An El Niño can't completely prevent hurricanes in the Atlantic, but it often serves to limit hurricane formation and reduce hurricane landfalls along the East Coast, giving Florida and other hurricane-prone areas a break.
During El Niño, vertical wind shear over the Atlantic hurricane region is enhanced and can tear apart the towering cloud structures that help give hurricanes their energy, high winds and rainfall.
The Walker Circulation – a large-scale, slow overturning of air in the atmosphere – is part of what allows El Niño and La Niña to have such far-reaching effects. It circulates along the equator in the tropics, driven by interaction of pressure systems over the Pacific. The jet stream that influences North America’s weather responds to where the increased precipitation and storms occur within the circulation.
During La Nina, vertical wind shear over the Atlantic decreases, and conditions that allow hurricanes to build towering clouds can happen without interference.
During El Niño, the circulation increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, interfering with hurricane development, while reducing vertical wind shear over the eastern Pacific.
How does El Niño affect the world's weather?
Among effects around the globe:
Enhanced probability of below normal precipitation for India’s monsoon. Eastern Australia and southern Africa see a greater probability of below normal rainfall. The west coast of South America and East Africa see enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation.
2023 United States elections.
The 2023 United States elections are scheduled to be held, in large part, on Tuesday, November 7, 2023. The off-year election includes gubernatorial and state legislative elections in a few states, as well as numerous citizen initiatives, mayoral races, and a variety of other local offices on the ballot. At least two special elections to the United States Congress were scheduled as either deaths or vacancies arose.
Contents.
1 Federal elections 1.1 House of Representatives 2.1 Gubernatorial elections 2.2 Attorney general elections 2.3 Secretary of state elections 2.4 State treasurer elections 2.5 State agriculture commissioner elections 2.6 State supreme court elections 2.7 Legislative 2.8 Referendum 3.1 Mayoral elections 3.1.1 Eligible incumbents 3.1.2 Ineligible or retiring incumbents 4.1 Referendums.
Federal elections Edit.
House of Representatives Edit.
Main article: 2023 United States House of Representatives elections.
At least two special elections will be or have been held in 2023 to fill vacancies during the 118th U.S. Congress.
Virginia's 4th congressional district: Democrat Jennifer McClellan defeated Republican Leon Benjamin to succeed Donald McEachin, who died on November 28, 2022, of colorectal cancer. [1] The district has a partisan index of D+16. [2] Rhode Island's 1st congressional district: Democrat David Cicilline will resign on June 1, 2023, to become the president and CEO of the Rhode Island Foundation. [3] The district has a partisan index of D+14. [2]
State elections Edit.
Gubernatorial elections Edit.
Main article: 2023 United States gubernatorial elections.
Kentucky: One-term Democrat Andy Beshear is running for re-election. [4] Louisiana: Two-term Democrat John Bel Edwards is term-limited in 2023 and therefore ineligible to seek re-election. [5] Mississippi: One-term Republican Tate Reeves is running for re-election. [6]
Attorney general elections Edit.
Main article: 2023 United States attorney general elections.
Kentucky: One-term Republican Daniel Cameron is retiring to run for governor. [7] Louisiana: Two-term Republican Jeff Landry is retiring to run for governor. [8] Mississippi: One-term Republican Lynn Fitch is running for re-election. [9]
Secretary of state elections Edit.
Three states will hold secretary of state elections in 2023:
Kentucky: One-term Republican Michael Adams is running for re-election. [10] Louisiana: Two-term incumbent Kyle Ardoin is retiring. [11] Mississippi: One-term incumbent Michael Watson is running for re-election. [12]
State treasurer elections Edit.
Three states will hold state treasurer elections in 2023:
Kentucky: Two-term Republican Allison Ball is term-limited and therefore ineligible to seek re-election. She is running for state auditor. [13] Louisiana: Two-term Republican John Schroder is retiring to run for governor. [14][15] Mississippi: One-term Republican David McRae is running for re-election. [16]
State agriculture commissioner elections Edit.
Three states will hold agriculture commissioner elections in 2023:
Kentucky: Two-term Republican Ryan Quarles is term-limited and therefore ineligible to seek re-election. He is running for governor. [17] Louisiana: Four-term Republican Michael G. Strain is running for re-election. [18] Mississippi: Two-term Republican Andy Gipson is running for re-election. [19]
State supreme court elections Edit.
Two states, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, will hold Supreme Court elections in 2023:
Wisconsin: Incumbent Justice Patience Roggensack is retiring. The election for a new justice was held on April 4, 2023. Janet Protasiewicz defeated Daniel Kelly. Pennsylvania: Justice Max Baer died in September 2022. The election for a new justice will be held on November 7, 2023.
Legislative Edit.
Main article: 2023 United States state legislative elections.
Legislative elections will be held for both houses of the Louisiana State Legislature, the Mississippi Legislature, the New Jersey Legislature, and the Virginia General Assembly. Kentucky, which holds gubernatorial elections in off-years, holds state legislative elections concurrent with presidential and midterm elections.
Referendum Edit.
In a March special election, Oklahoma voters rejected State Question 820, a ballot initiative that would have legalized the recreational use of marijuana by people 21 and older. [20] In an April special election, Wisconsin voters approved Question 1, Question 2, and Question 3, all by landslides. Question 1 raised the conditions necessary for release, removing the word "bodily" from the phrase "All persons, before conviction, shall be eligible for release under reasonable conditions designed to . protect members of the community from serious bodily harm". Question 2 inserted an additional paragraph allowing judges wider latitude for when to apply cash bail for people accused of violent crimes. The current language of the constitution allows imposition of cash bail only in situations where it is believed "necessary to assure appearance in court." The amendment would allow judges to impose cash bail (on those accused of a violent crime) based on the "totality of the circumstances". Question 3 posed the question "Shall able-bodied, childless adults be required to look for work in order to receive taxpayer-funded welfare benefits?" The results of the referendum had no legal effect, and Wisconsin law already has work requirements for all welfare programs in the state. [21] In an August special election, Ohio voters will vote on a measure that would require future amendments to the Ohio Constitution to be approved by 60% of the electorate in a referendum rather than a simple majority. [22]
Local elections Edit.
Mayoral elections Edit.
A number of major U.S. cities have held mayoral elections in 2023:
Tampa, Florida: On March 7, one-term incumbent Jane Castor won re-election unopposed. [23] Chicago, Illinois: On April 4, Brandon Johnson defeated Paul Vallas in a runoff election, succeeding one-term incumbent Lori Lightfoot, who lost re-election in the primary. [24] Green Bay, Wisconsin: On April 4, one-term incumbent Eric Genrich won re-election against Chad Weininger. [25] Madison, Wisconsin: On April 4, one-term incumbent Satya Rhodes-Conway won re-election against Gloria Reyes. [26] Springfield, Illinois: On April 4, Misty Buscher narrowly defeated two-term incumbent Jim Langfelder in his bid for re-election. [27] Easton, Maryland: On May 2, Megan Cook defeated six-term incumbent Robert C. Willey in his bid for re-election. [28] Lincoln, Nebraska: On May 2, one-term incumbent Leirion Gaylor Baird won re-election against Suzanne Geist. [29] Arlington, Texas: On May 6, one-term incumbent Jim Ross narrowly won re-election against Amy Cearnal. [30] Dallas, Texas: On May 6, one-term incumbent Eric Johnson won re-election unopposed. [31] Fort Worth, Texas: On May 6, one-term incumbent Mattie Parker won re-election against Jennifer Castillo, Kenneth Bowens Jr., and Alyson Kennedy. [32] San Antonio, Texas: On May 6, three-term incumbent Ron Nirenberg won re-election against Christopher Schuchardt. [33] Colorado Springs, Colorado: On May 16, Yemi Mobolade defeated Wayne W. Williams in a runoff election, succeeding two-term incumbent John Suthers, who was term-limited. [34] Jacksonville, Florida: On May 16, Donna Deegan defeated Daniel Davis in a runoff election, succeeding two-term incumbent Lenny Curry, who was term-limited. [35]
Eligible incumbents Edit.
Aurora, Colorado: One-term incumbent Mike Coffman is running for re-election. [36] Boise, Idaho: One-term incumbent Lauren McLean is running for re-election. [37] Cary, North Carolina: Four-term incumbent Harold Weinbrecht is eligible for re-election. Charleston, South Carolina: Two-term incumbent John Tecklenburg is running for re-election. [38] Charlotte, North Carolina: Three-term incumbent Vi Lyles is eligible for re-election. Columbus, Ohio: Two-term incumbent Andrew Ginther is running for re-election. [39] Des Moines, Iowa: Five-term incumbent Frank Cownie is eligible for re-election. Durham, North Carolina: One-term incumbent Elaine O'Neal is eligible for re-election. Fayetteville, North Carolina: Three-term incumbent Mitch Colvin is eligible for re-election. Fort Wayne, Indiana: Four-term incumbent Tom Henry is running for re-election. [40] He will face Tom Didier in the general election. [41] Greenville, South Carolina: Seven-term incumbent Republican Knox White is running for re-election. Noblesville, Indiana: First-term incumbent Republican Chris Jensen is running for re-election. Indianapolis, Indiana: Two-term incumbent Joe Hogsett is running for re-election. [42] He will face Jefferson Shreve in the general election. [43] Kansas City, Missouri: One-term incumbent Quinton Lucas is running for re-election. [44] Knoxville, Tennessee: One-term incumbent Indya Kincannon is running for re-election. [45] Montgomery, Alabama: One-term incumbent Steven Reed is running for re-election. [46] Orlando, Florida: Five-term incumbent Buddy Dyer is running for re-election. [47] Pueblo, Colorado: One-term incumbent Nick Gradisar is running for re-election. [48] Salt Lake City, Utah: One-term incumbent Erin Mendenhall is running for re-election. [49] Savannah, Georgia: One-term incumbent Van R. Johnson is running for re-election. [50] South Bend, Indiana: One-term incumbent James Mueller is running for re-election. [51] Spokane, Washington: One-term incumbent Nadine Woodward is running for re-election. [52] Tucson, Arizona: One-term incumbent Regina Romero is running for re-election. [53] Wichita, Kansas: One-term incumbent Brandon Whipple is running for re-election. [54]
Ineligible or retiring incumbents Edit.
Akron, Ohio: Two-term incumbent Dan Horrigan is retiring. [55] Shammas Malik is running unopposed in the general election. [56] Carmel, Indiana: Seven-term incumbent James Brainard is retiring. [57] Denver, Colorado: Three-term incumbent Michael Hancock is ineligible to run for re-election due to term limits. Kelly Brough and Mike Johnston advanced to the runoff election. [58] Evansville, Indiana: Three-term incumbent Lloyd Winnecke is retiring. [59] Hartford, Connecticut: Two-term incumbent Luke Bronin is retiring. [60] Houston, Texas: Two-term incumbent Sylvester Turner is ineligible to run for re-election due to term limits. Manchester, New Hampshire: Three-term incumbent Joyce Craig is retiring. [61] Memphis, Tennessee: Two-term incumbent Jim Strickland is ineligible to run for re-election due to term limits. Nashville, Tennessee: One-term incumbent John Cooper is retiring. [62] Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: Two-term incumbent Jim Kenney is ineligible to run for re-election due to term limits. Cherelle Parker and David Oh are the nominees for the general election. [63] Portland, Maine: One-term incumbent Kate Snyder is retiring. [64]
Other local elections Edit.
Chicago, Illinois: City Council, City Clerk, City Treasurer, Police District Councils Multnomah County, Oregon: Board of Commissioners (special election) [65] Los Angeles, California: City Council New York, New York: City Council Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: City Council Seattle, Washington: City Council West Linn, Oregon: City Council (rescheduled election after ballot error in November 2022) [66]
Tribal elections Edit.
Several Native American tribes will hold elections for tribal executive positions during 2023, including the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma [67] and the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians. [68]
The Cherokee Nation will hold elections for principal chief, deputy chief, and eight of the seventeen Tribal Council seats on June 3. [69]
Referendums Edit.
The Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians will consider in September 2023 ballot referendums to change the structure of tribal government and establish term limits. [70]
References Edit.
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El nino 2023 - Election day 2023
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